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Loss Prevention · All retail

Refund-Fraud Pattern

Refund behavior outside the norm. Builds the case with the timing.

Target KPI Shrink
Executes in ≤ 24 hours
System of record POS · LP case mgmt
Run this on your data → How the loop closes
Trigger condition

Refund behaviour on a customer identifier, tender or operator matches a known fraud signature: no-receipt clustering, repeat high-value returns, or refunds concentrated in one shift.

Write-back

Case opened in LP case management with the linked transaction timeline; refund policy exception flag set at POS where approved.

Every write is gated on an approver role you name. Nothing runs unattended.

Procedure
  1. Match against the signature set rather than on refund volume alone, which flags good customers and busy lanes.
  2. Link the refunds to their originating sales where a receipt or tender trail exists, and note where it does not.
  3. Quantify the exposure and check whether policy, not fraud, is the actual gap.
  4. Open an LP case with the timeline assembled, gated on the LP manager before anything reaches a customer or an employee.
  5. Close when the case resolves or policy is changed to remove the opening.
Outcome metric

Refund loss on the flagged pattern over 60 days against the pre-case run rate.

The case closes on this number, not on the action being taken. A playbook without a close condition is a dashboard.

The rest of Loss Prevention

Shrink Investigation Shrink above baseline. Attributes dock, floor, or admin and opens the case. Shrink % Receiving Dock Audit Dock-receipt mismatches recurring. Flags the vendor and deliveries to audit. Shrink POS Exception Sweep Voids and refunds clustering on a register or operator. Shrink Sweethearting Detection Discount and void patterns suggest sweethearting. Correlates operator and lane. Shrink

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