Home · Shrinkage

Ward monitors shrinkage so your Home team doesn't have to.

No dashboards. No queries. Shrinkage findings delivered every morning.

Why shrinkage matters
in home retail.

Small hardware has the highest per-unit theft rates but lowest dollar impact; power tools have lower frequency but massive loss per incident. Ward segments shrinkage by value tier and department so loss prevention allocates resources where the dollar impact is highest, not just where the unit count is.

Industry benchmarks

Home improvement shrink runs 1.4-2.6% of sales, with power tools, copper, and high-value building materials accounting for 30-50% of total dollar shrink despite small unit volume. ORC events typically affect a tight geographic cluster of 5-15 stores.

Power tool theft ring detection

Ward flags elevated power tool shrinkage at a geographic cluster of stores, concentrated during weekday afternoons, a pattern consistent with organized retail crime. Ward recommends immediate spider-wrap enforcement and receipt-checking at affected locations. LP investigation confirms a theft ring, and targeted intervention brings shrinkage back toward estate averages within weeks.

What Ward actually tracks

Ward segments by value tier, tracks geographic clustering for ORC detection, monitors receiving accuracy on bulk/pallet deliveries, and measures POS velocity-to-inventory count gaps.

Data signals

POS at SKU-store-shift, receiving logs and PO variance, store geocodes for ORC clustering, employee schedules, and category-value-tier overlays.

Three pitfalls Ward catches
in home shrinkage.

  • 01 High-volume small hardware shrink dominates incident counts and pulls LP attention toward unit-level fixes; the bigger dollar exposure is in low-frequency power tool theft.
  • 02 Pallet receiving discrepancies on building materials (lumber, drywall, roofing) often don't surface until the next physical because random sampling rarely catches the missing units.
  • 03 ORC patterns concentrate geographically; chain-wide LP allocation misses the cluster signal that directs investigative focus.

How Ward runs shrinkage
for home retailers.

  1. 01

    Decompose shrink by value tier and department

    Ward separates loss patterns by SKU value tier, department, and store cluster, surfacing where dollar shrink concentrates rather than where unit shrink concentrates.

  2. 02

    Detect geographic clustering for ORC

    Cards flag synchronized shrink patterns across nearby stores in high-value categories, the signature of organized theft rings.

  3. 03

    Tighten receiving controls on bulk deliveries

    Ward identifies pallet-receiving variance patterns and recommends targeted sampling or 100% verification on flagged SKUs from flagged vendors.

What a Ward card looks like.

Ward · Shrinkage for Home06:47 AM

Store #37 showing 4.2% shrinkage vs 1.8% estate average. Pattern suggests receiving dock discrepancy, not shoplifting.

✓ Action recommendedHome context applied
app.getward.ai Live demo
Acme Retail @Merchandising: VP Analyst claude-sonnet default
A

Chat

Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.

Why did Store 37 miss target last week?
You · 9:42 AM
Schema Scout · routed to Merchandising Agent

I pulled Store 37’s last 28 days against the chain baseline. Two root causes, both compounding.

SignalFinding
labor_efficiencyRev/labor-hour −22% vs. cluster, staffing mismatch at 11a–1p peak
inventory.freshFresh fill 83%, backroom replenishment lag at 2–4p
promo.liftBOGO crackers cannibalized Brand Y by 28%, net category +6%

Recommend: re-baseline Store 37 schedule against true peak, raise replen window to 1p, and review the BOGO before next cycle.

8 parallel queries 3 sources cited confidence 0.92
Show me how to fix the staffing mismatch.
You · 9:43 AM
Labor Agent · drafting schedule diff
Querying labor_scheduling
Ask anything, Ward routes to the right agent. Cmd+K

Dashboards

Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries.

Revenue vs. forecast +4.2% WoW
Gross margin % −3.2pp
Fill rate, fresh 83%
Shrink, West region +0.8pp

Models

Browse, search, and manage data–lake model definitions for your tenant.

NameNamespaceVersion
retail_pos_transactionsretail1.0
retail_inventory_snapshotretail1.2
retail_labor_schedulingretail1.0
retail_promo_calendarretail1.1
retail_supplier_performanceretail1.0
sap_inventory_shrinkagesap1.0
ga4_daily_eventsmarketing1.0
meta_ads_ad_levelmarketing1.0

Sources

Connect external systems to the data lake.

NameTypeLast sync
sap_pos_transactionsimport2m ago
sap_inventory_shrinkageimport2m ago
sap_labor_schedulingimport14m ago
retail_inventory_weeklyimport1h ago
retail_google_ads_dailyimport1h ago
retail_meta_ads_dailyimport1h ago
retail_ga4_website_dailyimport1h ago

Architecture

Two ways to connect. Federate against your live systems, or ingest into Ward’s data lake. Toggle below.

Your systems · read-only
SAP Retail
Snowflake
BigQuery
Shopify
Toast POS
Ward Gateway
TLS 1.3 · AES-256
Querying live · data stays put
Federated answers
SELECT * FROM sap.pos
JOIN snow.inventory
WHERE store_id = 37
→ insight cards
Ward Data Lake
→ baselined per store
TLS 1.3 in transit AES-256 at rest Read-only credentials SOC 2 II in progress VPC peering · PrivateLink

Pipelines

Move data from sources into models on a schedule.

NameSourceModelStatusSchedule
sync_sap_pos_transactionssap_pos_transactionspos_transactionsenabledhourly
sync_sap_labor_schedulingsap_labor_schedulinglabor_schedulingenableddaily
sync_sap_inventory_shrinkagesap_inventory_shrinkageinventory_shrinkageenableddaily
sync_retail_inventory_weeklyretail_inventory_weeklyinventory_weeklyenabledweekly
sync_retail_google_ads_dailyretail_google_ads_dailygoogle_ads_dailyenableddaily
sync_retail_ga4_website_dailyretail_ga4_website_dailyga4_website_dailyenableddaily

Streams

Real-time ingestion pipelines.

0events / min
0streams active
0% delivered
  • pos.txn store_037, basket $42.18
  • inv.move dc_west → store_104
  • labor.clock store_022 shift_start
  • pos.txn store_211, basket $19.04

Policies

Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.

TLS 1.3 AES-256 Read-only SOC 2 II
Policy IDEffectResources
merch-read-defaultpermitModel::*
finance-read-shrinkagepermitModel::"shrinkage"
vendor-blockedforbidModel::"labor_*"
region-west-onlypermitTenant::"acme"

Entities

Principals and resources referenced by Cedar policies.

Entity UIDTypeTenant
Tenant::"acme"Tenantacme
Model::"sap.pos_transactions"Modelacme
Model::"sap.inventory_shrinkage"Modelacme
Model::"sap.labor_scheduling"Modelacme
Model::"retail.toast_pos_daily"Modelacme
Model::"retail.ga4_website_daily"Modelacme

Providers

Manage LLM API keys and the model profiles that use them.

API Keys Model Profiles
NameProviderUsed byCreated
anthropic-defaultAnthropic3 profilesApr 22
openai-defaultOpenAI2 profilesApr 22
gemini-defaultGemini1 profileApr 22
ollama-onpremOllama2 profilesApr 22

LLM-agnostic. Bring your own key, route per task. No lock-in.

Settings

Manage your dashboard preferences and account.

Appearance
Theme • Light ° Dark

Light and dark themes are available. Your choice is remembered per browser.

Account
NameAdmin
Emailadmin@acme.io
Tenantacme-retail
Shrinkage for Home, live product demo.

Home shrinkage:
the shift.

Without Ward
Found in the quarterly review. Weeks after the damage is done.
  • ×Project basket identification
  • ×Seasonal pre-positioning
  • ×Long-tail inventory
With Ward
Caught this morning. Root cause attached. Action recommended.
  • Cause-level shrinkage attribution
  • Store-vs-estate benchmarking
  • Receiving dock anomaly detection

Home KPI impact.

Seasonal Accuracy
Weather + event driven
Pre-positioning adjusted for peak season signals.
Long-Tail Turn
Dead weight separated
Which tail SKUs serve project needs vs sit idle.
Project Basket Value
Cross-sell surfaced
Project purchasing patterns drive attachment.

Ward requires 6\u201312 months to baseline seasonal categories. Pro vs DIY segment separation is critical for accurate modeling.

Questions about home shrinkage.

Small hardware has the highest per-unit theft rates but lowest dollar impact; power tools have lower frequency but massive loss per incident. Ward segments shrinkage by value tier and department so loss prevention allocates resources where the dollar impact is highest, not just where the unit count is.

Ward flags elevated power tool shrinkage at a geographic cluster of stores, concentrated during weekday afternoons, a pattern consistent with organized retail crime. Ward recommends immediate spider-wrap enforcement and receipt-checking at affected locations. LP investigation confirms a theft ring, and targeted intervention brings shrinkage back toward estate averages within weeks.

Ward segments by value tier, tracks geographic clustering for ORC detection, monitors receiving accuracy on bulk/pallet deliveries, and measures POS velocity-to-inventory count gaps.

First shrinkage insight cards arrive within 48 hours. Robust home baselines form within two weeks. Ward requires 6\u201312 months to baseline seasonal categories. Pro vs DIY segment separation is critical for accurate modeling.

What's shrinkage costing you this year?

Industry-average shrinkage rates run 1.0–1.9% of revenue depending on vertical. Drop in your numbers to see your annual exposure and how much of it Ward typically recovers.

$

Home retailers: see what shrinkage problems Ward catches.

Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.

Get a demo

Find out what your data has been hiding.

Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.

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