Shrinkage Detection for Fashion & Apparel
Instead of one more dashboard, Ward sends shrinkage findings each morning with the action already recommended.
Why shrinkage matters
in fashion retail.
The biggest hidden source of fashion shrinkage isn't theft, it's administrative error in transfer-heavy operations where every handoff between stores, e-commerce, and returns is a reconciliation risk. Ward tracks inventory movements across all channels and distinguishes transfer discrepancies from return fraud and genuine theft.
Benchmarks. Fashion shrink runs 1.4-2.5% of sales, with returns/wardrobing in premium tiers contributing 0.4-0.8% of that. High-value categories (handbags, outerwear, premium denim) account for 40-60% of total dollar shrink despite being 10-20% of unit volume.
Return fraud pattern detection, premium retailer
Ward flags a cluster of stores where high-value item returns run well above estate average, most without original tags, with the same payment cards appearing across multiple locations. The pattern matches a wardrobing ring. LP adjusts the return policy for flagged categories and sees a significant drop in high-value returns within weeks.
Three pitfalls Ward catches
in fashion shrinkage.
- 01 Return fraud and wardrobing get logged as legitimate returns because store associates lack the data to challenge them in real time.
- 02 Inter-store transfers get scanned as "received" without case opening, so vendor short-shipments only surface at the next physical inventory.
- 03 BOPIS and ship-from-store create double-counted inventory in the OMS that disappears on the next reconciliation as "shrink".
How Ward runs shrinkage
for fashion retailers.
-
01
Reconcile inventory across channels every week
Ward builds a continuous reconciliation between POS, OMS, WMS, and e-commerce; gaps surface as cards within days, not at the annual count.
-
02
Score returns by fraud risk
Time-to-return, missing tags, repeat customer patterns, and payment card overlap produce a per-return risk score; the top 5% trigger associate prompts.
-
03
Tag high-value items for movement audit
For categories above a value threshold, Ward enforces an audit trail check at every channel handoff and flags gaps in real time.
What a Ward card looks like.
Chat
Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.
I pulled fall denim against last season’s curve at the same selling week. Two causes, both still fixable this week.
| Signal | Finding |
|---|---|
sell_through | Week 6 sell-through 38% vs. 52% plan, concentrated in 3 of 9 door clusters |
size_curve | Waist 30–32 sold out in 41 doors while 36–38 sits at 71% on hand |
markdown.ladder | First markdown is 3 weeks later than LY, weeks-of-supply now 11.4 |
Recommend: transfer 30–32 out of the 12 overstocked doors, hold the ladder on core indigo, and take the first markdown on light wash now while it still clears at 20%.
sell_through_weekly…
Dashboards
Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries.
Sources
Connect external systems to the data lake.
| Name | Type | Last sync |
|---|---|---|
shopify_orders_daily | import | 2m ago |
shopify_returns_reasons | import | 2m ago |
netsuite_inventory_snapshot | import | 14m ago |
cegid_store_sales | import | 1h ago |
retail_size_curve_actuals | import | 1h ago |
retail_markdown_ladder | import | 1h ago |
retail_ga4_website_daily | import | 1h ago |
Policies
Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.
| Policy ID | Effect | Resources |
|---|---|---|
merch-read-default | permit | Model::* |
finance-read-markdown | permit | Model::"markdown_ladder" |
vendor-blocked | forbid | Model::"labor_*" |
ecom-read-returns | permit | Model::"returns_reasons" |
Fashion shrinkage:
the shift.
- ×Markdown timing
- ×Size curve misallocation
- ×Style velocity prediction
- ✓Cause-level shrinkage attribution
- ✓Store-vs-estate benchmarking
- ✓Receiving dock anomaly detection
Fashion KPI impact.
Ward requires at least 2 full selling cycles to baseline style velocity and markdown timing. Results vary between basics and trend-driven categories.
Questions about fashion shrinkage.
The biggest hidden source of fashion shrinkage isn't theft, it's administrative error in transfer-heavy operations where every handoff between stores, e-commerce, and returns is a reconciliation risk. Ward tracks inventory movements across all channels and distinguishes transfer discrepancies from return fraud and genuine theft.
Ward flags a cluster of stores where high-value item returns run well above estate average, most without original tags, with the same payment cards appearing across multiple locations. The pattern matches a wardrobing ring.
Ward tracks transfer accuracy rates, return-to-sale ratios, inter-store reconciliation gaps, and high-value item movement patterns. Separating operational shrinkage from intentional loss is essential because the interventions are completely different.
First shrinkage insight cards arrive within 48 hours. Stable fashion baselines form within two weeks.
Fashion shrinkage
by data source.
More Fashion insight cards.
Fashion retailers: see what shrinkage problems Ward catches.
Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.
Read-only to start · your LLM keys · SOC 2 Type II underway · or book a call directly
Find out what your data has been hiding.
Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.