Home · Stockout · Epicor · VP Supply Chain

Stockout Prediction + Epicor + Home Retail: Built for VP Supply Chain

Home operators find Stockout problems in post-mortems and quarterly reviews. Ward catches them daily — with root causes and recommended actions. Your Supply Chain team has the data. What they don't have is bandwidth to find what's buried in it.

What is Stockout Prediction for Home Improvement?

Stockout Prediction is the process of ward detects skus trending toward zero-on-hand and alerts your team with replenishment recommendations before customers notice.

For Home Improvement retailers specifically, this means monitoring 50,000+ SKUs across stores. Project-based purchasing, long-tail SKUs, and seasonal volatility. Ward manages the complexity of 50,000+ SKU environments with ease.

How Ward delivers Stockout insight cards: Ward analyzes sell-through velocity, current inventory levels, lead times, and supplier reliability to predict stockouts 24-72 hours before they occur.

Key capabilities

  • Reduce lost sales by catching gaps early
  • Automated replenishment recommendations
  • Supplier-aware lead time modeling
  • Priority ranking by revenue impact
app.getward.ai
Live product demo — Ward analyzing retail data in real time.

Why Stockout matters for Home retail

A missing grout SKU doesn't just lose a grout sale — it kills the entire tile project basket. Ward models project basket dependencies and scores stockout predictions by basket-impact, prioritizing replenishment on the items with the highest project-abandonment risk.

How Ward connects to Epicor

Ward integrates with Epicor for home improvement, furniture, and building supply retailers. Inventory, purchasing, production, and sales data power insight cards.

Setup: Ward connects via Epicor REST API. Compatible with Epicor Prophet 21 and Epicor Eclipse.

Data Ward reads from Epicor

Sales orders
Inventory
Purchase orders
Customer accounts
Pricing tiers
Vendor performance

Impact metrics with Epicor

Seasonal Accuracy
Pre-buy timing sharpened
Weather and event signals calibrate seasonal positioning.
Project Basket Value
Cross-sell patterns found
Project purchasing sequences reveal attachment opportunities.
Vendor Fill Rate
Degradation caught early
Fill rate drops flagged before shelf impact materializes.
Inventory Carrying Cost
Slow-movers identified
Demand-aligned ordering frees capital tied in dead stock.

Data lake enrichment

Ward enriches Epicor data with: Sales orders, Weather & events, Contractor/Pro data, Competitor pricing, Vendor scorecards

You find out about stockouts after customers do.

Pain points
  • ×Demand forecasts are off by 15-25% and nobody catches it until the shelf is empty
  • ×Supplier fill rate issues are discovered at receiving, not predicted
  • ×Safety stock levels are set annually, not dynamically
  • ×No early warning system for supply chain disruptions
  • ×Replenishment exceptions require manual triage every morning
How Ward helps
  • Stockout prediction cards arrive 24-72 hours before empty shelves
  • Supplier fill rate tracking with automatic escalation
  • Dynamic safety stock recommendations based on current demand signals
  • Weather, event, and macro-driven demand adjustments
  • Replenishment exceptions auto-prioritized by revenue impact

Stockouts cost retailers $1.14 trillion in missed sales globally each year. — IHL Group

Project basket dependency alert, spring season

Ward detects a popular deck stain trending toward stockout as spring project season peaks. The insight goes beyond the stain itself: project basket analysis shows customers buying this product also purchase brushes, drop cloths, and sandpaper. Ward issues a prediction card with full basket-impact context, and the DC team expedites replenishment to protect total project basket revenue across affected stores.

What a Ward insight card looks like

Ward · Home · Stockout06:47 AM

23 SKUs trending toward zero-on-hand within 48 hours. Replenishment recommendation attached. Priority: dairy and produce categories.

✓ Action recommendedHome context appliedEpicor data

Home KPI impact

Seasonal Accuracy
Weather + event driven
Pre-positioning adjusted for peak season signals.
Long-Tail Turn
Dead weight separated
Which tail SKUs serve project needs vs sit idle.
Project Basket Value
Cross-sell surfaced
Project purchasing patterns drive attachment.
Inventory Carrying Cost
Capital freed
Demand forecasting reduces slow-moving overstock.

Frequently asked questions

Ward detects SKUs trending toward zero-on-hand and alerts your team with replenishment recommendations before customers notice. For Home retail specifically, Ward monitors 50,000+ SKUs across your stores and delivers automated insight cards with root cause analysis and recommended actions.

Ward tracks Project basket value, Seasonal accuracy, Long-tail turn, Pro customer share, Attachment rate at the store-category level. Ward analyzes sell-through velocity, current inventory levels, lead times, and supplier reliability to predict stockouts 24-72 hours before they occur.

Ward connects via Epicor REST API. Compatible with Epicor Prophet 21 and Epicor Eclipse. Data points include: Sales orders, Inventory, Purchase orders, Customer accounts, Pricing tiers, Vendor performance.

Yes. Ward reads Epicor data and combines it with contextual signals (weather, events, demographics) to generate Home-specific insight cards. No custom development required.

You find out about stockouts after customers do. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: Stockout prediction cards arrive 24-72 hours before empty shelves. Supplier fill rate tracking with automatic escalation. Dynamic safety stock recommendations based on current demand signals.

Ward delivers daily insight cards covering Project basket value, Seasonal accuracy, Long-tail turn — tailored for Supply Chain decision-making. Each card includes what changed, why it matters, and what to do next.

Ward accounts for project basket dependencies, seasonal demand curves, Pro customer bulk patterns, and the outsized revenue impact of missing a low-cost component that completes a high-value project.

Ward detects a popular deck stain trending toward stockout as spring project season peaks. The insight goes beyond the stain itself: project basket analysis shows customers buying this product also purchase brushes, drop cloths, and sandpaper. Ward issues a prediction card with full basket-impact context, and the DC team expedites replenishment to protect total project basket revenue across affected stores.

First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish robust baselines for your specific operation.

No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards — so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.

Ward
Insight
Dispatch
Feedback
Evaluate
Learn
01

Insights surface

Ward’s agents detect what changed, why it matters, and what to do about it. Every insight includes a recommended action—not just a chart to interpret.

Real-time detection Root cause + recommendation
02

Insights become actions

Any insight card can be turned into a tracked ticket or task. Dispatched to the right person, on the right channel—mobile push, text, or email. Not every insight needs a ticket. But when one does, it has an owner.

Tickets created automatically Dispatched to the right person
03

Your team responds

Insights get voted up or down with reasoning. Tickets get completed or rejected. Every response is a signal—Ward learns what worked, what missed, and why.

Vote up / down Ticket completed Reasoning attached
04

Outcomes measured

Ward evaluates real results: revenue, margin, fill rate, labor cost. Did the action actually improve the number it targeted? Measured outcomes, not assumptions.

KPI impact tracked Results vs. prediction scored
05

Agents get sharper

Every vote, every completed ticket, every measured outcome feeds back in. Ward learns from your team’s judgment and real-world results. Each cycle sharpens the next. Then it starts again.

Cycle repeats, sharper each time
$1.8T
Projected global AI market by 2030
0
×
Customer acquisition lift for data‑driven orgs
0
+
Foundation models shipped since 2022
0
Guarantees any single model stays on top

See what Home stockout problems Ward catches.

Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.

Get a demo

Find out what your data has been hiding.

Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches — and the ones your current tools miss.

Step 1 of 3
What are your goals?
Step 2 of 3
About your operation
Step 3 of 3
Your contact info